Red Bull advisor Helmut Marko claims it is now unlikely the team will contest for victory before the Singapore Grand Prix.
The Austrian made the depressing prediction as he looked ahead to this weekend's race in Canada, an event which the Anglo-Austrian team has only won twice.
Instead, what he did foresee in Montreal was a duel between Mercedes and Ferrari, who are expected to be more competitive.
"In Montreal at the weekend Ferrari would have to stand a chance because of their strong engine," Marko told Auto Bild.
"Of course we will try everything, but our time will come at the latest from the race in Singapore.
"That's when Honda will introduce a new engine step and we can provide a good package with our chassis."
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Max Verstappen kickstarted his 2018 season with a third place in North America, but even he concedes a repeat is likely his best outcome.
"We always want to try. Last year wasn't that bad, but I expect Ferrari to be very strong because of the long straights," he told Austria's Servus TV.
"They have a high top speed. I am very motivated to make it to the podium. Of course I want to win, but given the fact that Mercedes is so strong, that won't be easy."
