The times are changing! Just a few years ago, the prognostications of the bike race were limited to a choice between Cyril Despres and Marc Coma, who dominated the category, with five victories each between 2005 and 2015.

But since then, a new era has begun, led by a generation of ambitious young riders more than by the former also ran in the Coma-Despres duels. In 2015, Toby Price made a remarkable debut in finishing 3rd, as did Mathias Walkner, who dropped out early from the rally, while the young and spirited Sam Sunderland had more than his share of retirements.

The three hopefuls went on to confirm their potential in winning the three following editions, which extended KTM’s winning streak to 17 straight titles. However, the Austrian firm’s dominance has indeed been threatened over the past few years.

Last January, Honda rider Kevin Benavides was the biggest threat to Walkner. And in the Japanese squad, perhaps diminished like last year with the absence of Paulo Gonçalves, who was injured during testing, there is still plenty to destabilize the past three victors. Will winner of 22 stages in eight Dakar participations, Joan Barreda ride an error-free Dakar to claim the overall win?

But the Spaniard could also be surprised by his up and coming Chilean team mate Jose Ignacio Cornejo, who finished 10th last year substituting for Gonçalves.

KTM will also have to be weary of the threat coming from other Japanese brand, Yamaha, and its team leader Adrien van Beveren who finished 6th in 2016 and 4th in 2017 and who in his first three participations has confirmed that he is a future Dakar champion.

His retirement on stage 10, while on his way towards victory last year, could be considered as the final act of his Dakar learning process. Another blue bike, ridden by Xavier de Soultrait, could also be in the mix, but there are many credible candidates aiming for the podium.

Pablo Quintanilla took 3rd place in 2016 and when it comes to performance his Husqvarna is just as strong as its rivals. Stefan Švitko finished runner-up in 2016 on a KTM entered by the factory team, and where could Joan Pedrero finish if he has a bit of luck on his side? Another to watch will be 2018 top rookie Oriol Mena, who finished 7th and who is now called upon to star on a Hero. And finally, Michael Metge has joined his brother Adrien at Team Sherco that still has ambitions of finishing in the Top 10.

Sand, dunes and desert. This is what the Dakar riders and crews are in search of and the exclusively Peruvian menu that has been concocted for this coming January clearly corresponds to their expectations.

In any case, this is the opinion they formulated collectively when they entered after the announcement that the entire rally route was to be within the borders of Peru. In all, 334 vehicles will turn up for the start on January 7, all of whom share the goal of returning to the capital after 5,000 kilometres, including 3,000 of special stage that will be remembered for an unequalled intensity.

“It is a little like as if we were competing in the Vendée Globe only in the roaring 40s”, says race director Etienne Lavigne in defining the degree of difficulty of the 2019 edition.

The skill level of dune crossing, the ability to navigate without detours in open terrain and the indispensable physical strength to battle in the massive sandy sectors will be the criteria to fulfil for the title contenders.

In the motorcycle category, the indestructible KTMs of Walkner, Price and Sunderland will, once again, take on the Hondas of Benavides, Gonçalves and Barreda as well as the Yamahas of Van Beveren and De Soultrait. In the car class, the former Peugeot stars have moved to Mini, where Sainz, Peterhansel and Despres will join Roma, Przygonski and Terranova, while Loeb will be in a privateer Peugeot entered by PH Sport.

They will face stiff competition from the Toyotas of Al Attiyah, De Villiers and Ten Brinke, in the largest car field since 2015.

In the truck division, the favourites from Kamaz should face their rivals from Team De Rooy, led by Gerard De Rooy, who returns after a one-year absence.

Beyond the battle for three major titles, looking at the entry list reveals several tendencies that already make the 2019 edition standout.

First, the number of rally newcomers totals 135 competitors, allowing 97 vehicles, (30% of the field) to compete for rookie of the year honours. Second, the SxS category has properly taken off this year, with 30 entrants in all, and a battle that promises to be a tight one between former quad category winner Sergey Karyakin, retired bike rider Gerard Farrés (3rd in 2017) and the star of American off-road Casey Currie.

And third, a female movement with the largest entry since the beginning of the Dakar’s South American era. They will be 17, including long-time competitor in the bike category Laia Sanz, but there will also be a few duos to keep an eye on such as Camelia Liparoti and Rosa Romero in the car category along with Annett Fischer and Andrea Peterhansel in SxS.

Half-marathon: the second chance

The disappointments are sometimes cruel on the Dakar, especially in the case of a premature retirement after just a few hundred kilometres of action.

This year, the cars, trucks and SxS that experience this hardship in the opening half of the rally will be able to re-join the rally following the rest day in a parallel competition.

Competing in a separate classification, these vehicles will run with an orange plate and will never be permitted to start in the first 25 places of a special stage.

The photo of the Córdoba podium last January had a “déjà vu” feeling about it, and for a good reason. 

Eduard Nikolaev had just won his second consecutive Dakar, and third overall in a category massively dominated by Kamaz with 15 titles in 22 years (8/10 in South America).

The collective Russian celebration, with drivers tossed into the air and the deployment of the nation’s flag, was nevertheless a relief after a huge scare in the waning days of the rally.

 The young “Tsar” who is following in the tracks of Vladimir Chagin had a mere one second lead at the start of the penultimate special stage from Argentina’s Federico Villagra, who came to a dead stop with a mechanical problem as he was envisaging a triumph on home soil.

The disappointing episode has been digested by the Argentineans and this time Team De Rooy, the only squad to contest the supremacy of the Blue Armada in the last decade, is entering a complete line-up.

Following a pause in 2018, two-time truck class winner Gerard De Rooy (2012 and 2016) returns with lofty ambitions. And in addition to his Argentinean partner in crime, the boss will also be able to count on Ton van Genugten, who is now a serious threat after winning four stages on the last Dakar.

The most direct threat is therefore clearly identified for Kamaz, where we also have to observe in detail a densification of competition at the highest level.

In the 2018 general classification, it was their Belarussian “cousins” from Maz who followed Nikolaev, with Siarhey Viazovich on the second step of the podium at a reasonable distance of four hours.

But appetites have continued to grow in the meantime, with 29-year-old Martin Macik (Big Shock Racing), who represents the future of the discipline and who intends to continue to improve after finishing in the Top 5 for the first time in 2018.

Divided into several bands, the Czech clan is also counting onAles Loprais (Instaforex Loprais Team) or Martin Kolomy (Tatra Buggyra Racing) to succeed their shared mentor, Karel Loprais, who scored the last of his six titles in 2001.

And finally, The Netherlands remains the best represented nation in the category with 10 trucks having a credible shot at a strong result. The best of the Dutch bunch are Martin Van den Brink at Mammoet Rallysport, GertHuzink with Riwald and Gerrit Zuurmond in his Rainbow Truck.

In the future, this may be Ford's goal, which is making its debut as a factory constructor with two trucks, entrusted to Belgian driversPeter Van Delm and Yves Rutten. In the meantime, they could give the Sugawara family run Hino a run for its money in the under 10-litre class.

 It’s been 10 days since the Peru shown responsibility to deeply analyse the budgetary implications of the Dakar. It is now able to guarantee that the event will be run properly and will be offering the best of welcome to the competitors and the organisation.

Yesterday, the Peruvian Government stated the Dakar as “Event of National Interest”.

Over the last couple of weeks, the preparation of the event never stopped, the organization and its teams being constantly in touch with the Peruvians representatives.