Racing Point believes Formula 1 has underestimated the impact of an aerodynamic change coming for 2021.
With the current cars set to be used again next season, the floor design is to be altered to reduce downforce amid fears the Pirelli tyres may not be able to cope with the increasing loads.
Initial predictions claimed the performance lost would equate to around half a second, the usual amount cars improve by year-on-year.
But Racing Point technical director Andrew Green is now expecting it to be more.
“We’ve taken a slice of real estate out of the floor in front of the rear tyre,” he was quoted by GPFans.
“It takes a really large hit aerodynamically to a point where I would be surprised if anybody was able to develop their way out of it in the time we have available for 2021.
“So I fully expect 2021 cars to be slower than 2020 cars. It’s a huge change. A small change relatively speaking to the floor has had quite a significant impact on the performance of the car.
“It’s not just a redevelopment of the floor, unfortunately, it’s a redevelopment almost of the front to back aerodynamics of the car to try and recover it.”
Not only is the performance loss likely bigger than intended, but Green also thinks the amount of work needed to incorporate the reshaped floor will be bigger – and therefore more costly – than F1 teams had expected.
“It wasn’t until we got back from the break and started to look at it we realised how big a change it was,” he explained.
“We didn’t want a change that was going to significantly change the flow structure on the car. Unfortunately, the change that’s come through does do that.
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“We understand the reasons why, we understand that we do need to peg back the performance of the car, and for sure this is going to peg back the performance of the car in 2021.
“It’s the same for everybody, I don’t think anybody’s got an advantage or disadvantage relatively speaking compared to other teams because of this change, I think we’re all in the same boat.
“It’s just never nice when you do a change to a car and get a very large hit, and you realise that it’s not a small development.”