The extra wind tunnel time available to midfield teams makes them a threat for the 2022 Formula 1 season, Mercedes boss Toto Wolff claims.
This year could see the pecking order shaken up by a major change in regulations with a radically new car design being introduced aimed at producing closer racing.
F1 teams took different approaches in preparing for 2022, with some, like Haas and Ferrari, focusing all their 2021 resources on developing this year’s car, while others, particularly Red Bull, were much later in making that switch.
But what was also in the favour of those teams further down the order was the new tiered allocation of permitted hours in the wind tunnel compared to those at the front.
“The regulations are very new and then there is what was introduced in the aerodynamic regulations, where teams based on their standing in the championship had a little bit more wind tunnel allowance,” Wolff said.
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“So it’s pretty much possible that teams who hadn’t competed for the world championship this year, whether it’s Ferrari, McLaren or Aston Martin or Alpine are capable of coming up with the intelligent concepts based on more runs than everybody else and just doing it very right.
“I think we need to expect much closer fighting for championships and races than we had before and that’s exciting.”
As with all big technical rule changes, there is always the chance of one or teams finding solutions that give them an edge, such as the double diffuser in 2009.
That means Wolff expects full convergence won’t come until next year at the earliest.
“If someone finds a loophole and runs away with it, everyone will recreate it,” he acknowledged.
“The cars will all be very similar. There can still be performance differences in the first year. After that, it will balance out.
“There will no longer be a team that drives a second ahead.”
The Mercedes chief also highlighted the role of the budget cap in creating a much more equal grid than before, when some teams were spending four or five times that of the smaller outfits.
“I believe that the budget cap will bring many things into line,” he said.
“Of course, the teams that had deep pockets weren’t particularly happy that we lost an advantage there, but the whole thing had degenerated into an arms race between Red Bull, Ferrari and us. Now everything will be more balanced.
“I think there are five or six teams that can win in the future. That’s good for sports. It’s not always the same team that wins the Super Bowl.”