Max Verstappen faces a “puzzle” when he makes his 2021 decision as Red Bull fear a change in the competitive order.
The Dutchman is one of many leading drivers out of contract at the end of next season and a move to Mercedes has been touted following previous rumours back in 2017 and again this year.
However, this all coincides with Formula 1’s biggest potential shake-up since 2009 when a raft of new regulations are introduced, making an informed call almost impossible.
“The three of us will put the pieces of the puzzle together, looking at the short, medium and long term,” Verstappen’s manager Raymond Vermuelen said recently on how that decision will be approached.
“The question [for 2021] is: how is the car? Nobody knows.
“It is one large crystal ball at the moment. You can of course look at how a team has performed in the past and how they have dealt with changes before, but I think it is now up to Red Bull and Honda to see how the new rules fit them.
“The other teams also have very good people. I think 2021 will be an interesting season.”
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The last race in Austin saw Max reach 100 races in F1 but his father, former driver Jos, made it clear that such milestones carry little significance.
“We don’t need the record for the most number of races. We have to become a world champion,” he said.
Red Bull is very aware of the potential shocks that can occur with rule changes having capitalised on the 2009 overhaul to move from the midfield to the front of the grid.
The main concern for team boss Christian Horner though is the level of competition now being seen between the top three teams could be undone.
“Mercedes are the benchmark but it feels like the grid is concertinaing a bit,” he said.
“Usually a regulation change spreads it apart. It might be ironic that 2020 might be the closest year we have, with a three-way battle, before everything changes for 2021.”
Crucial to Red Bull’s performance will be the development of Honda and looking ahead, in the short-term at least, Verstappen is upbeat.
“We have already achieved some good results, but we want to take the next step and try to go for the championship next year,” he said.
“It was a year of learning with Honda this year and we made good progress. Everyone on the team is very motivated and wants to win.”
There is still the relatively small possibility of the Japanese manufacturer pulling out after next season though, but team advisor Helmut Marko expects a final call soon.
“Honda has not decided yet,” he told Motorsport-Magazin. “I think the decision should be made around the race in Abu Dhabi.
“It is handy to have an engine in a Formula 1 car!
“The rules are on the table and now you can calculate how much cheaper engine development will be. There will be restrictions on dyno time and different materials.”