Sebastian Vettel was on course to topple Michael Schumacher’s record of seven Drivers’ Championship titles after winning his fourth crown at the age of just 26.
The German had reeled off his fourth triumph on the bounce for Red Bull Racing and appeared to be on a trajectory to become the sport’s most dominant driver. However, the 32-year-old has failed to add to his tally and been surpassed by Lewis Hamilton, who is now within one title of equalling Schumacher’s feat.
Hamilton is once again the leading contender in the latest F1 odds to secure yet another championship win in the 2020 campaign, which would further distance himself from Vettel as the top driver of the era. The German was edging their duel early in the last decade, but it has fallen apart for him, beginning with Red Bull and since his move to Ferrari in 2015.
Perhaps the most striking difference has been his form in the second halves of seasons. We’ll now analyse his performances to see where Vettel has failed to thrive in his bid for further world titles, in contrast to where he succeeded in his winning stretch.
Races 1-10
Red Bull (2010-13) – victories: 13
Ferrari (2015-2019) – victories: 9
There is a not a huge discrepancy between his performances in his runs to the crown with Red Bull and his four seasons with Ferrari. Six of his 13 wins with Red Bull came in a dominant run of form in the 2011 campaign when no driver could touch him. In that season, Vettel finished outside of the top three on only two occasions, which was certainly the German operating at the peak of his powers. He has not been terrible at the start of seasons since his move to Ferrari, either. Indeed, Vettel has often built leads on Hamilton – notably in the 2017 and 2018 campaigns.
The German recorded three victories apiece in the opening ten races in those two seasons, including back-to-back wins in Australia and Bahrain. The 2016 and 2019 seasons were disappointing, failing to record a single victory in the opening half, although those terms looked doomed from the off due to the dominance of Hamilton and Mercedes. Vettel will not look back at those years with much regret, though 2017 and 2018 are different stories.
Races 11-21
Red Bull (2010-13) – victories: 20
Ferrari (2015-19) – victories: 4
There’s no explanation needed to see why Vettel has not been victorious in the Drivers’ Championship since 2013. He has failed to produce the wins when they’ve mattered the most in the stretch run; particularly in the 2017 and 2018 campaigns. Vettel and Ferrari were in position twice to at least push Hamilton all the way for his titles. However, he registered only two wins – one in each season – after the halfway point. It’s not good enough to be a champion.
Vettel is a long way removed from the driver that was clinical in the 2013 term when he closed out the Drivers’ Championship with eight wins on the bounce. There has been some bad luck along the way due to mechanical issues, but nowhere near enough to provide a reasonable excuse. Whereas Hamilton has gone from strength-to-strength as the season has progressed, Vettel has faded away – notably in 2018 when Hamilton reeled off four-straight wins in Italy, Singapore, Russia, and Japan compared to Vettel’s record of fourth, third, third, and sixth. Vettel has never been able to build momentum, and it has resulted in failure for him and Ferrari.